My Account Log Out
 
 
Geno Smith

Geno Smith Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Las Vegas Raiders vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Geno Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+640/-1350).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1300 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1350.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Raiders to pass on 59.5% of their opportunities: the 10th-highest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Raiders rank as the 5th-most pass-focused team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 65.3% red zone pass rate.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 133.7 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • In this game, Geno Smith is forecasted by the projection model to have the 7th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 36.6.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
  • The predictive model expects Geno Smith to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack near the goal line this week (9.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
  • Geno Smith's 64.0% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects an impressive decrease in his throwing accuracy over last year's 70.1% figure.
  • Since the start of last season, the strong Chicago Bears defense has surrendered a paltry 1.25 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-lowest rate in the league.
  • The opposing side have rushed for the 6th-most TDs in football (1.15 per game) versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™