Geno Smith TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

TD Passes

Las Vegas Raiders vs Chicago Bears · Week 4, 2025

Updated Sep 28, 2025 8:12 PM EST

Analysis

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-112/-100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Raiders to pass on 59.5% of their opportunities: the 10th-highest rate among all teams this week.
The Raiders rank as the 5th-most pass-focused team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 65.3% red zone pass rate.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 133.7 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In this game, Geno Smith is forecasted by the projection model to have the 7th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 36.6.

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
Geno Smith's 64.0% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects an impressive decrease in his throwing accuracy over last year's 70.1% figure.
Since the start of last season, the strong Chicago Bears defense has surrendered a paltry 1.25 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-lowest rate in the league.

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