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Geno Smith

Geno Smith TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Washington Commanders vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+132/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Raiders are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their normal game plan.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Raiders to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The Raiders have been the 4th-least pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 33.3% red zone pass rate.
  • The model projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect Geno Smith to throw 35.9 passes in this game, on balance: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Commanders defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in football.
  • Geno Smith's throwing accuracy has declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 70.1% to 62.9%.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in the NFL against the Commanders defense since the start of last season (68.2% Adjusted Completion%).

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