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Geno Smith

Geno Smith TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Giants

 
 
 
Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+174/-225).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -223 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -225.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Raiders are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
  • Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Raiders to pass on 60.5% of their downs: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
  • The predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 60.5% red zone pass rate.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are anticipated by the projections to run just 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.0 plays per game.
  • As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Las Vegas Raiders ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • Geno Smith's 65.9% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates an impressive decrease in his passing accuracy over last year's 70.1% mark.
  • The New York Giants linebackers profile as the 9th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

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