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Geno Smith TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16

Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-175/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -156 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -175.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Raiders being a giant -14-point underdog this week.

The leading projections forecast the Raiders as the most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 66.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

At the moment, the 5th-most pass-focused team in the NFL near the end zone (60.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Raiders.

The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.

In this contest, Geno Smith is predicted by our trusted projection set to total the 4th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 38.4.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Raiders to call the 8th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The 5th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Raiders this year (only 52.2 per game on average).

The Raiders O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Geno Smith's 65.7% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a material drop-off in his passing accuracy over last season's 70.1% rate.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest level in football against the Texans defense this year (63.6% Adjusted Completion%).

More Geno Smith Player Props

Geno Smith TD PassesPlayer Prop Week 16

Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders

Geno Smith TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16