Geno Smith TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

TD Passes

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos · Week 14, 2025

Updated Dec 7, 2025 9:07 PM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-229/+221).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -253 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -229.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -8-point disadvantage, the Raiders are huge underdogs this week, indicating much more of a reliance on passing than their typical approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
With a 64.0% rate of passing the ball in the red zone (adjusted for context) this year, the 4th-most pass-focused offense in football in these situations has been the Las Vegas Raiders.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect Geno Smith to throw 36.9 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 5th-most among all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The model projects the Raiders offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 29.37 seconds per play.
The Las Vegas O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Geno Smith's passing precision has worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 70.1% to 66.1%.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest level in football against the Denver Broncos defense this year (64.9% Adjusted Completion%).
This year, the daunting Broncos defense has yielded a puny 0.92 TDs through the air per game to opposing teams: the lowest rate in the NFL.

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