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Geno Smith TD Passes
Player Prop Week 13

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-265/+188).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +200 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +188.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being a huge -9.5-point underdog in this game.

The projections expect the Raiders as the 4th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The Raiders have been the 4th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 64.2% red zone pass rate.

Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) generally cause increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Raiders are expected by the model to call just 61.4 plays on offense in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.

The 9th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Raiders this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Chargers, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.4 per game) this year.

The Raiders offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Geno Smith's passing accuracy has declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 70.1% to 65.4%.

More Geno Smith Player Props

Geno Smith TD PassesPlayer Prop Week 13

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

Geno Smith TD Passes
Player Prop Week 13