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Geno Smith

Geno Smith TD Passes
Player Prop Week 10

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-225/+197).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +189 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +197.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being a big -9-point underdog in this week's game.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 61.1% of their plays: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Raiders have been the 5th-most pass-focused team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 60.8% red zone pass rate.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Raiders this year (just 52.5 per game on average).
  • Geno Smith's passing precision has diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 70.1% to 66.6%.
  • This year, the daunting Broncos defense has conceded a feeble 64.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-best rate in the NFL.
  • The Broncos defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL: 0.89 per game this year.
  • The Broncos safeties grade out as the 8th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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