Geno Smith TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

TD Passes

Seattle Seahawks vs New York Jets · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to attempt 38.0 passes in this week's game, on average: the 9th-most of all QBs.
Geno Smith has been among the best precision passers in the NFL this year with a stellar 70.6% Completion%, grading out in the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 9th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.2 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-lowest level in the NFL versus the New York Jets defense this year (67.7%).
The New York Jets defense has conceded the least touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 0.87 per game this year.
The New York Jets cornerbacks project as the best CB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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