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Geno Smith Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Las Vegas Raiders vs Chicago Bears

Geno Smith Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 133.7 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.

With an impressive record of 4.25 yards-after-contact (97th percentile), Geno Smith places among the top running quarterbacks in the NFL this year.

Opposing teams have run for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the NFL (141 per game) vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Raiders to be the 10th-least run-focused team among all teams this week with a 40.5% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Geno Smith has rushed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (7.0) this season than he did last season (16.0).

Geno Smith's ground efficiency has tailed off this year, totaling just 3.53 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 6.85 rate last year.

The Bears linebackers project as the 4th-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

More Geno Smith Player Props

Geno Smith Rushing YardsPlayer Prop Week 4

Las Vegas Raiders vs Chicago Bears

Geno Smith Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 4