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Geno Smith

Geno Smith Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Geno Smith Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -118.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a stellar total of 2.66 yards-after-contact (92nd percentile), Geno Smith ranks as one of the leading running quarterbacks in the NFL this year.
  • This year, the strong Chargers run defense has allowed a puny 4.83 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing offenses: the 23rd-best rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being a huge -9.5-point underdog in this game.
  • The model projects the Raiders to be the least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 37.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Raiders are expected by the model to call just 61.4 plays on offense in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The 9th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Raiders this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).
  • Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) generally cause increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.

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