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Geno Smith Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-120/-110).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.18 seconds per snap.While Geno Smith has garnered 4.5% of his team's rush attempts in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Seattle's run game in this week's contest at 13.0%.Geno Smith's ground effectiveness (6.22 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (79th percentile among QBs).This year, the porous Bengals run defense has surrendered a colossal 152.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 3rd-worst in football.When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Cincinnati's unit has been very bad this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in the league. in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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At a -3-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their usual game plan.Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Seahawks to run on 39.9% of their plays: the 8th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.Geno Smith has averaged a mere 1.0 rush attempts per game this year, one of the lowest rates in the league among QBs (9th percentile).As it relates to executing run-blocking assignments (and the impact it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Seahawks ranks as the 4th-worst in the league last year.Geno Smith's 6.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season signifies a a material decline in his running ability over last season's 21.0 mark.
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