Geno Smith Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing Yards

New York Giants vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 3, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects Geno Smith to be a more important option in his team's running game in this contest (12.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (5.6% in games he has played).
The New York Giants defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, conceding 5.22 yards-per-carry.
The Giants linebackers profile as the worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to be the least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 40.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to run the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) typically mean better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced ground volume.
The projections expect Geno Smith to notch 3.2 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the fewest out of all quarterbacks.
The Seahawks offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season at run-game blocking.

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