Geno Smith Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 8:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-112/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to notch 4.2 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the 10th-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack this week (16.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (5.8% in games he has played).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 7th-most yards in the league (134 per game) vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers rank as the 4th-worst unit in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.7 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have incorporated motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.