Geno Smith Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-160/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Geno Smith has averaged 3.3 rush attempts per game this year, one of the highest rates in the league among quarterbacks (75th percentile).
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (18.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (6.4% in games he has played).
Geno Smith has averaged 21.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in football among quarterbacks (78th percentile).
The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 8th-least run-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 36.3% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.
Geno Smith has been among the bottom quarterbacks in the NFL at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging just 1.18 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 16th percentile.