Geno Smith Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Geno Smith Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to garner 4.8 carries in this week's game, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (17.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (7.7% in games he has played).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 7th-most yards in the NFL (138 per game) against the Carolina Panthers defense this year.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 7th-least run-oriented team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 35.9% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
Geno Smith has been among the worst quarterbacks in the NFL at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging just 1.08 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 20th percentile.

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