Geno Smith Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing TD

Seattle Seahawks vs New York Giants · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Geno Smith Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+438/-1003).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -905 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1003.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
Geno Smith isn't afraid to take off running near the end zone, accounting for 16.7% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries this year (76th percentile among QBs).
The New York Giants linebackers grade out as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 53.4 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
Opposing squads have run for the 7th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.57 per game) vs. the New York Giants defense this year.
The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have utilized motion in their offense on 28.2% of their plays since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.