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Geno Smith

Geno Smith Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 6

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals

Geno Smith Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+437/-999).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +438 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +437.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.62 seconds per play.

Geno Smith has run for 0.20 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in the league among quarterbacks (82nd percentile).

Opposing squads have run for the 7th-most TDs in the league (1.00 per game) vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year.

The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to be a much smaller part of his offense's running game near the goal line this week (9.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (18.2% in games he has played).

The Arizona Cardinals safeties profile as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

The Seattle Seahawks have incorporated motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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