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Geno Smith

Geno Smith Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Washington Commanders vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Geno Smith Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 245.5 (+100/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 236.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 245.5 @ +100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Raiders are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their normal game plan.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Raiders to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The model projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect Geno Smith to throw 35.9 passes in this game, on balance: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.
  • Geno Smith ranks as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 259.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 90th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Commanders defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in football.
  • Geno Smith's throwing accuracy has declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 70.1% to 62.9%.
  • Since the start of last season, the stout Commanders defense has surrendered a meager 198.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 4th-fewest in the league.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in the NFL against the Commanders defense since the start of last season (68.2% Adjusted Completion%).

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