Geno Smith Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Passing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Giants · Week 17, 2025

Updated Dec 29, 2025 1:07 AM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 204.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 211.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 204.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Raiders to pass on 60.5% of their downs: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
This year, the deficient New York Giants defense has yielded the 8th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to the opposing side: a staggering 7.88 yards.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are anticipated by the projections to run just 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
The Las Vegas Raiders have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.0 plays per game.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Las Vegas Raiders ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year.
Geno Smith's 176.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season indicates a meaningful reduction in his passing ability over last season's 256.0 figure.
Geno Smith's 65.9% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates an impressive decrease in his passing accuracy over last year's 70.1% mark.

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