My Account Log Out
 
 
Geno Smith

Geno Smith Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Geno Smith Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 198.5 (-113/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 199.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 198.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Raiders are huge underdogs this week, indicating much more of a reliance on passing than their typical approach.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Our trusted projections expect Geno Smith to throw 36.9 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 6th-most among all quarterbacks.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Raiders offense to be the 5th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 29.04 seconds per play.
  • The Las Vegas O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
  • Geno Smith's 193.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season reflects a meaningful diminishment in his passing talent over last season's 256.0 mark.
  • Geno Smith's passing precision has worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 70.1% to 66.1%.
  • With a poor 6.69 adjusted yards-per-target (23rd percentile) this year, Geno Smith ranks among the worst per-play QBs in football.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™