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Geno Smith

Geno Smith Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders

Geno Smith Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 231.5 (+110/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 228.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 231.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders offense to be the quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.33 seconds per play.

In racking up a colossal 35.3 pass attempts per game last year, Geno Smith ranks among the top QBs in football (82nd percentile) for this stat.

With a stellar rate of 256.0 adjusted passing yards per game (85th percentile), Geno Smith places among the top quarterbacks in the league last year.

Geno Smith rates as one of the best precision passers in football last year with a fantastic 70.1% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 88th percentile.

The Patriots linebackers rank as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the NFL last year in pass coverage.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Raiders offensive scheme to skew 2.1% more towards the rushing attack than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Chip Kelly now calling the plays.

The predictive model expects the Raiders to be the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 59.4% pass rate.

The New England Patriots defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.85 yards-after-the-catch last year: the 6th-fewest in football.

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