Geno Smith Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Completions

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (+160/-220).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ +160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Seahawks being a heavy -7-point underdog in this game.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Seahawks to pass on 63.9% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest clip among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense this year: 4th-most in the league.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Seattle Seahawks are anticipated by the model to run just 61.5 plays on offense in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the 8th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 56.0 plays per game.
Geno Smith's passing accuracy has declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 69.4% to 66.2%.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's unit has been tremendous this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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