Geno Smith Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Carries

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Geno Smith Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to garner 4.4 rush attempts this week, on average: the 10th-most of all QBs.
Geno Smith isn't afraid to run the ball himself, accounting for 13.7% of his team's carries since the start of last season, ranking in the 76th percentile among QBs.

Favors Under

The Seahawks rank as the 7th-least run-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 36.3% run rate.
The Seattle Seahawks O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
The Los Angeles Rams safeties profile as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

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