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Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

New York Jets vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Garrett Wilson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-152).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -174 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -152.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally lead to increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.
  • The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (39.5 per game) this year.
  • While Garrett Wilson has garnered 20.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in New York's passing offense near the end zone this week at 33.1%.
  • Garrett Wilson's 86.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 66.4.
  • Garrett Wilson's 74.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this year signifies an impressive progression in his receiving ability over last year's 67.3% mark.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Jets to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 50.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect the New York Jets to be the 6th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 47.3% red zone run rate.
  • The projections expect the Jets to run the 7th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the New York Jets this year (a mere 53.2 per game on average).
  • After accruing 89.0 air yards per game last season, Garrett Wilson has produced significantly less this season, now pacing 81.0 per game.

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