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Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Garrett Wilson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+150/-168).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +152 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +150.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Jets will be rolling out backup quarterback Justin Fields in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • While Garrett Wilson has accounted for 20.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be much more involved in New York's passing offense near the end zone in this contest at 34.9%.
  • Garrett Wilson has put up a colossal 87.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
  • Garrett Wilson slots into the 95th percentile among WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) with a whopping 69.3 figure since the start of last season.
  • The Jets offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Jets offense to skew 10.6% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand now calling the plays.
  • The predictive model expects the New York Jets to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 50.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the model to see just 123.6 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week.
  • The lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the New York Jets since the start of last season (just 55.4 per game on average).
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) generally mean decreased passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased ground volume.

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