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Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

New York Jets vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-134/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +114 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -134.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Jets being a huge -7-point underdog this week.
  • The projections expect the Jets to run the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.0 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The Denver Broncos defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (37.2 per game) this year.
  • In this week's contest, Garrett Wilson is forecasted by the projections to rank in the 97th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 9.8 targets.
  • Garrett Wilson's 79.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 66.4.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the New York Jets as the 4th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • In regards to protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the New York Jets profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year.
  • Garrett Wilson's receiving performance has worsened this year, notching a mere 4.6 adjusted catches vs 6.0 last year.
  • The Denver Broncos pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (61.7%) versus WRs this year (61.7%).

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