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Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

New York Jets vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-134/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -129 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -134.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally lead to increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.
  • The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (39.5 per game) this year.
  • This week, Garrett Wilson is anticipated by the predictive model to rank in the 94th percentile among wideouts with 9.4 targets.
  • Garrett Wilson has been a much bigger part of his team's passing offense this season (36.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (27.3%).
  • Garrett Wilson grades out as one of the leading WRs in the league this year, averaging an impressive 5.2 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Jets to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 48.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have just 125.8 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the New York Jets this year (a mere 53.2 per game on average).
  • The Jets O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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