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Garrett Wilson Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets will be rolling out backup quarterback Justin Fields in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

With an extraordinary 97.9% Route% (99th percentile) since the start of last season, Garrett Wilson has been among the wideouts with the most usage in the NFL.

In this week's game, Garrett Wilson is forecasted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 97th percentile among WRs with 9.9 targets.

The Jets offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Garrett Wilson comes in as one of the best pass-catching WRs this year, averaging an exceptional 5.1 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 93rd percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Jets offense to skew 10.6% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand now calling the plays.

The predictive model expects the New York Jets to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 50.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the model to see just 123.6 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the New York Jets since the start of last season (just 55.4 per game on average).

Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) generally mean decreased passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased ground volume.

More Garrett Wilson Player Props

Garrett Wilson ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 4

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Garrett Wilson Receptions
Player Prop Week 4