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Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+106/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +112 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +106.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual approach.
  • The model projects Garrett Wilson to accrue 10.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
  • While Garrett Wilson has received 27.9% of his team's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in New York's offense in this week's contest at 34.0%.
  • As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the New York Jets profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
  • Garrett Wilson is positioned as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 6.1 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 96th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Jets offensive blueprint to lean 9.7% more towards the ground game than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand now calling the plays.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Jets as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Jets have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.8 plays per game.

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