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Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

New York Jets vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's line implies a passing game script for the Jets, who are -3-point underdogs.

Garrett Wilson has run a route on 97.6% of his team's passing plays last year, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

The leading projections forecast Garrett Wilson to garner 9.4 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs.

In regards to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Jets profiles as the 8th-best in football last year.

Garrett Wilson is positioned as one of the top WRs in the game last year, averaging a fantastic 6.0 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jets feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 6.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jets to pass on 56.1% of their plays: the 9th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects the Jets to run the 8th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The 5th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Jets last year (a mere 55.7 per game on average).

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