Garrett Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-127/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Jets are enormous underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.9% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
Garrett Wilson has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (97.7% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (86.4%).
The model projects Garrett Wilson to earn 10.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Garrett Wilson profiles as one of the best pass-catching WRs this year, averaging a fantastic 5.9 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the New York Jets are anticipated by the predictive model to call only 63.3 total plays in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The New York Jets have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.9 plays per game.
When talking about pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the New York Jets ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Miami's group of safeties has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in football.

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