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Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

New York Jets vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 61.5 (-115/-115).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally lead to increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.
  • The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (39.5 per game) this year.
  • This week, Garrett Wilson is anticipated by the predictive model to rank in the 94th percentile among wideouts with 9.4 targets.
  • Garrett Wilson has been a much bigger part of his team's passing offense this season (36.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (27.3%).
  • Garrett Wilson comes in as one of the leading pass-catching WRs this year, averaging an excellent 63.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Jets to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 48.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have just 125.8 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the New York Jets this year (a mere 53.2 per game on average).
  • After accruing 89.0 air yards per game last season, Garrett Wilson has produced significantly less this season, now pacing 81.0 per game.
  • The Jets O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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