Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2024

Updated Dec 9, 2024 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 62.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 57.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 62.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jets to pass on 63.7% of their chances: the 4th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
With an elite 98.4% Route% (99th percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson places among the wide receivers with the most usage in the league.
The predictive model expects Garrett Wilson to total 9.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
As it relates to pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the New York Jets grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

The projections expect this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 127.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have run the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.7 plays per game.
Garrett Wilson has posted far fewer air yards this season (92.0 per game) than he did last season (104.0 per game).
With a feeble 7.3 adjusted yards per target (21st percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson stands as one of the bottom WRs in the league in the league.
This year, the formidable Dolphins defense has yielded a meager 125.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers: the 2nd-best in the league.

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