Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (+103/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 47.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ +103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to total 8.7 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among WRs.
Garrett Wilson has been heavily involved in his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 21.1% this year, which ranks him in the 79th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The New York Jets O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Garrett Wilson has been among the worst wide receivers in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (63.5%) vs. wide receivers this year (63.5%).
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.88 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the best LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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