Garrett Wilson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 5:10 PM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+320/-500).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Garrett Wilson has garnered a monstrous 27.2% of his offense's air yards this year: 77th percentile among WRs.
Garrett Wilson's 51.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 80th percentile for wide receivers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has conceded the 8th-most passing touchdowns in the league to wideouts: 1.10 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to be much less involved in his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (25.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (39.1% in games he has played).
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the 6th-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to rushing the passer.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.