My Account Log Out

reorder

Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 14

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

Garrett Wilson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+197/-286).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -254 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -286.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.49 seconds per snap.

Garrett Wilson has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 27.6% this year, which ranks in the 95th percentile among wideouts.

Garrett Wilson has notched a whopping 71.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among wide receivers.

Garrett Wilson's 54.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 82nd percentile for WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The New York Jets have utilized play action on a mere 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

More Garrett Wilson Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™