Garrett Wilson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+197/-286).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -254 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -286.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.49 seconds per snap.
Garrett Wilson has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 27.6% this year, which ranks in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
Garrett Wilson has notched a whopping 71.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among wide receivers.
Garrett Wilson's 54.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 82nd percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have utilized play action on a mere 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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