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Gardner Minshew

Gardner Minshew TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16

Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Gardner Minshew TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+171/-185).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +197 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +171.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 61.5% red zone pass rate.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 60.6 plays per game.
  • The model projects Gardner Minshew to throw 35.7 passes this week, on balance: the 10th-most among all quarterbacks.
  • The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all pass attack statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a running game script.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to see only 127.1 total plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • Gardner Minshew has been one of the bottom touchdown passers in football since the start of last season, averaging a miserable 0.69 per game while checking in at the 24th percentile.

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