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Gabriel Davis Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 19

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills

Gabriel Davis Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+670/-1050).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -950 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1050.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills will be rolling out backup QB Josh Allen in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in football (37.5 per game) this year.

In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Bills grades out as the best in the NFL this year.

Gabe Davis's 73.3% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys an impressive growth in his pass-catching skills over last season's 49.8% mark.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to be the 6th-most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 48.5% red zone run rate.

While Gabe Davis has received 21.4% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much smaller piece of Buffalo's passing offense near the goal line this week at 11.4%.

After accumulating 67.0 air yards per game last year, Gabe Davis has posted significant losses this year, now averaging 29.0 per game.

Gabe Davis's 26.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 41.3.

The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (61.4%) to WRs this year (61.4%).

More Gabriel Davis Player Props

Gabriel Davis TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 19

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills

Gabriel Davis Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 19