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Gabriel Davis

Gabriel Davis Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Gabriel Davis Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+420/-630).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -590 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -630.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Gabe Davis has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 18.8% this year, which places him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the best in the NFL this year.
  • Gabe Davis's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 49.8% to 75.6%.
  • This year, the weak Patriots defense has yielded a massive 1.23 receiving TDs per game to opposing wide receivers: the 4th-highest rate in the NFL.
  • This year, the stout Patriots run defense has given up a measly 0.38 rushing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the 2nd-smallest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 10th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • At the present time, the 8th-most run-heavy team in the league in the red zone (47.2% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to have the fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 124.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Gabe Davis has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (26.0 per game) than he did last season (67.0 per game).
  • Gabe Davis's 24.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 41.3.

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