Gabriel Davis Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 69.2% pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
Gabriel Davis has run a route on 102.0% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has allowed the 3rd-highest Completion% in football (71.2%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (71.2%).

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.2 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Gabriel Davis has been among the worst possession receivers in football, catching a measly 53.3% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 2nd percentile among WRs

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