Gabriel Davis Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -240 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 70.6% pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
Gabe Davis has been used less as a potential target this year (94.0% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (51.5%).
The Miami Dolphins linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Gabe Davis's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.0% to 54.8%.
The Miami Dolphins pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-quickest in the league since the start of last season.

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