Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in football (67.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Buffalo Bills.
The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.3 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
In regards to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year.
With a terrific 54.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (76th percentile) this year, Gabriel Davis places as one of the best wide receivers in the game in football.
Gabriel Davis's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 53.0% to 60.0%.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.
After accumulating 95.0 air yards per game last season, Gabriel Davis has seen a big decline this season, currently averaging 76.0 per game.
Gabriel Davis's 40.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 49.8.
The Cowboys defense has conceded the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 127.0) versus wideouts this year.
The Cowboys pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (58.1%) versus wideouts this year (58.1%).

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