Foster Moreau Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

NFL · Player Props

Foster Moreau

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Foster Moreau Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-158/+124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -138 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -158.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.6% pass rate.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 4th-most in football.
Foster Moreau has run fewer routes this year (79.0% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (47.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Foster Moreau to accrue 5.7 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-worst paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 28.94 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on just 16.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
The Las Vegas Raiders have risked going for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.