My Account Log Out

reorder

Ezekiel Elliott

Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 4

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys

Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's line implies a running game script for the Cowboys, who are favored by 4 points.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

The 3rd-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Cowboys since the start of last season (a massive 60.6 per game on average).

Dallas's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats reduced) in light of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather in this week's contest.

The Giants defense has produced the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, conceding 4.96 adjusted yards-per-carry.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to run on 40.6% of their chances: the 11th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

After making up 44.0% of his team's rush attempts last year, Ezekiel Elliott has played a smaller part in the run game this year, currently accounting for just 32.2%.

Ezekiel Elliott's ground effectiveness (3.23 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league since the start of last season (11th percentile among running backs).

Ezekiel Elliott has been one of the weakest running backs in football at generating extra running yardage, averaging just 2.49 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 13th percentile.

More Ezekiel Elliott Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™