Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Rushing Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 16, 2024

Updated Dec 23, 2024 1:26 AM EST

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cowboys are anticipated by our trusted projection set to call 67.0 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
The 3rd-most plays in football have been run by the Cowboys this year (a whopping 61.1 per game on average).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has had the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding 4.72 adjusted yards-per-carry.
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Tampa Bay's DE corps has been terrible this year, grading out as the worst in football. in football.

Favors Under

The Cowboys will be forced to use backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
At a -4-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.
The model projects the Cowboys as the 6th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 38.2% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
While Ezekiel Elliott has garnered 21.7% of his offense's rush attempts in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much smaller part of Dallas's running game in this week's contest at 8.4%.

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