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Ezekiel Elliott

Ezekiel Elliott Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys

Ezekiel Elliott Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-175).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -175.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Cowboys to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.1% pass rate.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

The 3rd-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Cowboys since the start of last season (a massive 60.6 per game on average).

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Dallas O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line implies a running game script for the Cowboys, who are favored by 4 points.

Dallas's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats reduced) in light of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather in this week's contest.

Ezekiel Elliott's 26.5% Route Participation% this season shows a significant diminishment in his passing offense workload over last season's 36.7% mark.

As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, New York's group of LBs has been one of the most skilled since the start of last season, profiling as the 6th-best in football.

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