Ezekiel Elliott Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are massive underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are projected by the projections to run 65.5 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.
Ezekiel Elliott's receiving skills have gotten a boost this year, notching 2.2 adjusted catches compared to just 1.1 last year.
Ezekiel Elliott's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 72.6% to 94.5%.

Favors Under

The Patriots rank as the 8th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 59.1% pass rate.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) usually lead to decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and higher run volume.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.7 per game) this year.
Ezekiel Elliott's 29.3% Route Participation% this year conveys a a noteable diminishment in his pass attack utilization over last year's 44.1% mark.
The New England Patriots O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

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