Ezekiel Elliott Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 8, 2023 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -133 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line implies a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.77 seconds per play.
In this week's game, Ezekiel Elliott is forecasted by the model to place in the 94th percentile among running backs with 5.0 targets.
Our trusted projections expect Ezekiel Elliott to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing game in this week's game (15.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.2% in games he has played).
Ezekiel Elliott's 2.1 adjusted receptions per game this season shows a noteable gain in his receiving ability over last season's 1.1 rate.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Patriots to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.8% pass rate.
This year, the fierce Steelers defense has conceded a paltry 68.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the lowest rate in the league.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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