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Ezekiel Elliott

Ezekiel Elliott Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys

Ezekiel Elliott Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+155/-230).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -230.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to use backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Dallas Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 66.4 plays per game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.

Ezekiel Elliott has run a route on 57.7% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 95th percentile among running backs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 57.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Dallas Cowboys have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.

Ezekiel Elliott has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among running backs, hauling in just 73.6% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 18th percentile.

The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The New York Giants have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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